Meaning in the Age of AI

Will You Outlive Death?

Science is accelerating toward a threshold where medicine extends life faster than aging shortens it. Calculate your probability of reaching it.

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Step 1 of 7
How old are you?
Your age is the single most important variable. It determines how much time you have for science to catch up.
years old
Biological sex
This affects baseline life expectancy curves from actuarial data.
Male
Female
General health
A rough self-assessment. No specific disclosures needed.
Excellent
No chronic conditions, very active
Good
Minor issues, moderately active
Fair
One or more managed conditions
Poor
Significant health challenges
Exercise frequency
Physical activity is one of the strongest predictors of lifespan.
Sedentary
Rarely exercise
Light
1–2 times per week
Moderate
3–4 times per week
Intense
5+ times per week
Smoking status
One of the most well-documented factors in longevity research.
Never smoked
Former smoker
Current smoker
Family longevity
A rough genetic proxy. Think about your parents, grandparents, and other close relatives.
Most died before 70
Mixed
Most lived past 80
Several lived past 90
When will LEV arrive?
Drag the slider to set your assumption. The center position reflects the current prediction market consensus.
2053
Baseline
Prediction market consensus (Metaculus). AI-accelerated research continues at its current pace.
2035
Extremely
Optimistic
2043
Optimistic
2053
Baseline
2063
Conservative
2073
Very
Conservative
Baseline set from prediction market forecasts (Metaculus, Kalshi, et al.)
Calculating your probability
Modeling life expectancy, technology timelines, and overlap...

This calculator is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not medical advice. Consult a healthcare professional for personalized health guidance.

Meaning in the Age of AI