Claim 06 of 06
A cure for suffering itself.
Progress is measured by the Gallup Negative Experience Index, the share of adults worldwide reporting daily worry, stress, sadness, anger, or pain. The index has moved from 32 to 31 since 2020, against a completion threshold of zero.
Primary measure
Basis of the progress score
The single objective measure assigned to this claim, tracked from the 2020 baseline to the current value. This measure alone determines the progress percentage.
Gallup Negative Experience Index
The share of adults worldwide who reported experiencing worry, stress, sadness, anger, or physical pain during a large part of the previous day, averaged across the five components. Gallup surveys approximately 140 countries annually. Completion requires the index to approach zero.
Supporting measures
Related indicators
Reported alongside the primary measure to show whether it is consistent with the wider evidence. These do not enter the progress score. Bars show relative movement only.
Recent developments
Events since 2025
Developments relevant to this claim, and their effect on the primary measure where there is one.
Completion estimate
Basis for 2087
Starting point, adjustments applied, and the resulting estimate.
The primary measure was 31 in 2019, rose to a record 33 during 2021 to 2023, and returned to 31 in 2024, the first decline since 2014. Against the 2020 value of 32, this represents 3 percent of the distance to zero.
Supporting measures move in the opposite direction. Mental disorders accounted for 171 million DALYs in GBD 2023, rising from twelfth to fifth leading cause of global disease burden since 1990. Prevalence of major depressive disorder is approximately 24 percent above 2019 and anxiety disorders approximately 47 percent above. Approximately half of diagnosed cases receive no treatment.
One structural development is in progress. The FDA issued National Priority Vouchers to three psychedelic therapy developers in April 2026 and finalised trial guidance in July. An approval decision on at least one compound is expected in late 2026, which would be the first novel psychiatric mechanism approved in approximately four decades.
The claim as stated extends beyond clinical psychiatry. The index measures ordinary negative affect, a substantial share of which is attributable to material conditions addressed by the other five claims, and a residual attributable to conditions that no current intervention targets.
No prediction market prices this claim, as no settleable definition exists. The estimate used here is 2087 and carries the widest uncertainty band on the board. It assumes material causes are substantially removed by mid-century and that the residual declines slowly thereafter.
Assessment
Arguments for and against
The strongest available case on each side, stated without weighting.
Reasons to expect completion
- A novel psychiatric mechanism is close to approval.Psilocybin and a methylone compound hold FDA National Priority Vouchers, compressing review to one to two months. Reported trial effect sizes in treatment-resistant depression exceed those of existing pharmacotherapy.
- The treatment gap is large and addressable.Approximately half of diagnosed cases receive no treatment. Closing this gap requires delivery capacity rather than new science.
- Scalable low-cost delivery is newly available.Conversational AI provides continuous availability at near-zero marginal cost, which addresses the principal constraint on psychological support in low-provider-density settings.
- Physical pain is the largest and most tractable component.Approximately 32 percent of adults report physical pain on a given day, the largest single component of the index. Improvements in analgesia and chronic pain management act directly on the measure.
- The other five claims target major inputs to the index.Poverty, disease burden, mortality risk, and economic insecurity are established correlates of reported negative affect. Progress on those claims transmits to this one.
Reasons to expect failure
- Supporting measures are deteriorating.Mental disorder burden has approximately doubled since 1990 and prevalence of depression and anxiety has risen since 2019. This is the only claim on which the supporting evidence moves against the primary measure.
- Hedonic adaptation limits the effect of material improvement.Reported wellbeing in high-income countries has not risen proportionally with income since the 1970s, indicating that baseline affect adjusts to improved conditions.
- The stated causes may not be medically addressable.If negative affect arises substantially from loss, comparison, and impermanence, then pharmacological and technological interventions act on the symptom rather than the cause.
- The objective may not be desirable as stated.Negative affect carries information and is associated with attachment and motivation. Complete elimination has not been evaluated for second-order effects.
- Technology is contributing to the measure.Social comparison at scale, attention capture, and displacement of employment-derived purpose are plausible contributors to the observed increase in reported distress.
- The claim has no settleable definition.No prediction market prices it and no agreed completion threshold exists, which limits how far any estimate can be verified.
Scenarios
Most likely paths
Two sequences: the most probable route to completion and the most probable route to failure. These are structured projections, not forecasts, and neither is assigned a probability.
Most likely path to completion
The most probable path proceeds by removing causes rather than by treating the response.
The material component declines as the other five claims progress. Mortality risk, disease burden, absolute poverty, and economic insecurity are established correlates of the index and account for a substantial share of its value in low and middle-income countries.
The clinical component addresses the severe tail. Psilocybin approval in late 2026 establishes a regulatory pathway for novel mechanisms. Through the 2030s, treatment-resistant depression, PTSD, and chronic pain acquire interventions with materially larger effect sizes than current standard of care. Closed-loop neuromodulation addresses the most severe presentations.
The treatment gap closes as delivery cost falls. Continuous low-cost support reduces the share of diagnosed cases receiving no care from approximately half toward a small minority.
The residual component, negative affect not attributable to material conditions or to diagnosable illness, is addressed through training rather than treatment. Contemplative practice has measurable effects on reported affect and has historically been limited by access to instruction and by time available for practice, both of which change substantially under the other five claims.
The index approaches zero near 2087 through the combination of these components rather than through any single intervention.
Most likely path to failure
The most probable failure is that material causes are removed and the index does not respond.
Material conditions improve approximately as projected. By 2060 the median person faces low mortality risk, low disease burden, and no material requirement to work.
The index remains near its current level. Reported negative affect reallocates to relative status, comparison, boredom, and absence of perceived purpose. Hedonic adaptation resets the baseline as material conditions improve, consistent with the observed relationship between income and reported wellbeing in high-income countries since the 1970s.
Interventions targeting the symptom expand. Pharmacological management of low mood becomes routine, and engagement-optimised media and synthetic social relationships displace higher-cost sources of satisfaction. Measured affect improves marginally while measures of connection and purpose decline.
The premise is not confirmed. If negative affect is a structural feature of valuing outcomes rather than a treatable dysfunction, then the completion threshold is not reachable by intervention and the measure asymptotes well above zero.
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